律政英雄

夏春：美国增加关税带来全球贸易碎片化，最坏损失相当于日德GDP之和_我的网站

王者荣耀

A |

周二拜登宣布向180亿美元中国商品，包括电动汽车、半导体、太阳能和电池，加征关税。

经过测算，这些关税大约会使得美国的通胀同比增长一个基点，也就是0.01个百分点，对GDP的拖累也同样是一个基点，都可以忽略不计。 WELLINGTON, New Zealand -- New Zealand's immigration numbers have hit an all-time high, enabling employers to fill jobs but also putting pressure on the housing market, according to economists.The net number of immigrants was 110,000 in the year ending August, beating the previous high of 103,000 set a month earlier, according to figures released Wednesday by Statistics New Zealand. The numbers represent a big turnaround after more people left New Zealand than arrived during much of the COVID-19 pandemic.“We are talking very, very big numbers for a small economy like ours,” said Jarrod Kerr, chief economist at Kiwibank. Kerr said the surge likely reflected pent-up demand that had built during the pandemic. He said it had come as a relief to employers, who last year were having great difficulty finding skilled workers to fill vacant roles.New Zealand's unemployment rate remains at a relatively low 3.6%. But Kerr also cautioned the migrants would need a lot of resources, including tens of thousands of homes — something that remained in short supply.The figures show the greatest number of immigrants came from India, followed by Philippines and China. The total number of immigrants reached a record 225,000 during the year while the number of New Zealanders leaving also neared record levels, at 115,000.The figures included a net loss of nearly 43,000 New Zealand citizens, many of whom were lured to Australia with offers of better pay. Under a reciprocal arrangement, New Zealanders and Australians can live and work in either country. “Unfortunately, we lose trained, smart individuals,” Kerr said. “That is something that worries us.”The figures were released three days before New Zealand holds a general election, although immigration hasn't been a major campaign issue. Both main parties have focused on the soaring cost-of-living, tax cuts and crime. ___Follow AP's global migration coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/migration。因为4月通胀下行，市场预期9月降息，美股创出新高。影响不大的主要原因就是之前对中国电动汽车征收的25%的关税，使得原本中国对美国出口就很少。去年中国向美国出口了大约3.7亿美元的电动车，欧盟向美国出口了近 75 亿美元。中国仅占美国进口电动汽车的2%。

B | 德国、韩国和日本的占比分别为22%、21%和18%。采取加征关税减少竞争的方法来保护电动汽车，只会让美国汽车制造商进步缓慢。而且美国现在严重依赖中国生产的电池，加征关税只会使得整车成本更贵，美国想买电动车的老百姓就只能支付更高价格了。在海外市场，中国电动车都可以凭借价格和技术取胜。美国车将一步步被边缘化，美国新能源产业会越来越落后。

C | 2020年大选，拜登猛烈抨击特朗普向中国3000亿美元进口商品的征税，严重伤害了美国，因为95%以上的关税都是由美国企业和家庭承担的。但拜登上任后，继承了这些关税，目的就是遏制中国的发展。而这一次加税主要目的是讨好摇摆州的选民。最新民调显示拜登在六个摇摆州的五个都落后特朗普。但是特朗普上台后，大概率会向所有国家加征关税，而且主要是针对中国。这几年贸易战打下来，美国经济学家都一致反对，新研究显示过去中美贸易顺畅时，美国家庭和企业都直接受惠，贸易战让大家直接受伤。即使是过去声称中国商品造成美国制造业工人失业的经济学家，也完全改变了态度。

拜登加征关税的行为，也引来了IMF发言人Julie Kozack的批评。她表示，美国针对中国的贸易限制措施可能会扭曲贸易和投资，使得供应链碎片化并引发报复行动。她说：“这种碎片化可能会让全球经济付出高昂的代价。”IMF确定2023年全球贸易限制约为3000项，高于2019年的1000项，在地缘政治集团严重分裂的最坏情况下，这可能会使全球经济产出减少约7%，相当于减少了日本和德国GDP的总和。

“关于关税，我们的观点是，美国最好保持其开放的贸易政策，这对其经济表现至关重要，”Kozack说，“我们还鼓励美国和中国共同努力，找到一个解决方案，解决加剧两国贸易紧张局势的根本问题。”

现在为拜登或者特朗普欢呼的选民，将来都会发现，是他们自己葬送了美国的就业和发展机会！

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